Explainer: What does Brazil's choice mean for the Amazon rainforest?

SAO PAULO, October 26 (Reuters) – Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday could decide the fate of the Amazon, the world’s largest rainforest, after deforestation has soared over the past four years under President Jair Bolsonaro.

He faces former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who has pledged to stop all Amazon destruction and act aggressively on climate change.

Protecting the Amazon is vital to halting catastrophic climate change due to the massive amount of climate-warming greenhouse gases it absorbs.

What happens on Sunday?

Brazilians will choose between the two best presidential candidates in the first round of voting on October 2: left-wing Lula and right-wing Bolsonaro.

Lula beat Bolsonaro in the first round, but definitely below 50% needed to win. Bolsonaro has performed far better than most polls show.

The latest opinion polls show that Lula is ahead of Bolsonaro 46.2% with 52.0%.

Why did deforestation increase under Bolsonaro?

Bolsonaro, who took office in early 2019, has pushed for more mining and commercial farming in the Amazon, saying it will develop the region economically and help fight poverty.

It has weakened environmental enforcement agencies by reducing their budgets and staff while making it harder to punish environmental crimes.

Scientists and environmentalists say public criticism of conservation efforts has also encouraged illegal loggers, farmers and land grabbers to clear the forest, with less fear that the government will punish them.

How much has deforestation increased?

According to the government’s space exploration agency INPE, destruction in the Amazon rainforest last year reached its highest level since 2006.

During the first three years of Bolsonaro’s presidency, an area larger than the US state of Maryland was cleared.

Preliminary government data show deforestation increased another 23% in the first nine months of 2022.

What is Lula’s track record on deforestation?

Lula took office in 2003, with Amazonian deforestation levels near all-time highs. His administration empowered federal environmental enforcer Ibama and founded the parks service agency ICMBio.

By 2010, his last year in office, deforestation had fallen by 72%, approaching record levels.

But Lula also supported the massive Belo Monte hydroelectric dam, which destroyed riverine habitats in the Amazon and displaced indigenous people. Deforestation has begun to creep up again under former President Dilma Rousseff, her self-elected successor, who has weakened some policies to support development.

What does Bolsonaro promise for the environment?

Bolsonaro has said little about his environmental proposals should he win the second term. The Liberal Party representative told Reuters that the campaign did not have a spokesperson or any way to answer media questions on the matter.

Bolsonaro’s policy platform emphasizes that Brazilians have the right to develop natural resources in the Amazon. The campaign documents the efforts of the military, police and other agencies to combat deforestation and wildfires. But the data show that under Bolsonaro they failed to reduce the devastation.

What does Lula promise for the environment?

Lula has pledged to reduce deforestation to zero by rebuilding the government’s environmental institutions. His campaign likened his sweeping proposals to post-war reconstruction in the wake of increased environmental destruction under the current government.

He broadly adhered to the principles of “climate justice”, saying that the environment can only be protected by increasing economic opportunities to reduce hunger and poverty.

But as the Brazilian government faces a budgetary crunch, it remains unclear how it will pay for its policies.

What are indigenous groups saying?

Indigenous groups widely supported Lula, promising to empower them to protect their lands from environmental destruction.

Illegal miners, loggers, and land usurpers increasingly invaded and killed tribesmen under Bolsonaro’s rule, stopping the process of demarcating tribal lands.

Reporting from Jake Spring; additional reporting by Lisandra Paraguassu; Editing Brad Haynes and Rosalba O’Brien

Our Standards: Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Jake Spring

Thomson Reuters

Global Climate and Environment Correspondent based in Brazil. His interests include science, forests, geoengineering, cryosphere, climate policy/diplomacy, accountability and investigative reporting. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s work on environmental destruction has received awards from Covering Climate Now and the Society of Environmental Journalists. Previously based in China, she speaks Portuguese and Mandarin Chinese.

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