Upgrades to the B61 program have been openly discussed in budget documents and public statements for years, and Pentagon officials have said upgrades are necessary to ensure stockpiles are modernized and safe. Asked for comment, Pentagon spokesman Brig. General Patrick Ryder responded via email: “While we will not discuss the details of our nuclear arsenal, the modernization of the US B61 nuclear weapons has been going on for years and plans to replace obsolete weapons with the updated B61-12 in a safe and responsible manner. The releases are part of a long planned and programmed modernization effort. It is in no way connected with current events in Ukraine and has not been accelerated in any way.”
The date of arrival came as a surprise to some longtime observers, who feared it would exacerbate the already dangerous situation in Europe. The announcement, made at the meeting in Brussels, came days before NATO launched its annual nuclear exercise, known as the Steadfast Noon. The two-week exercise concludes on Sunday and involves around 70 aircraft. On Wednesday, Russia held a nuclear exercise, which the defense chief described as simulating a “major nuclear strike” in retaliation for a nuclear attack on Russia, according to the Kremlin.
“It would be awkward to rush it,” said Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, who closely monitors the program. “They say we are not responding to this situation with nuclear weapons. I don’t think they want to go below that.”
The message behind the sending of the first bombs in December may be more aimed at European allies, who feel particularly vulnerable to Moscow.
“My guess is it targets NATO more than Russia,” said Tom Collina, policy director at the Plowshares Fund, a disarmament group. “There is [older] The B61s are already there. Russians know this. They work well. The newer ones will be newer, but it’s actually not that big of a difference. But it could be a way to reassure the allies when they feel particularly threatened by Russia.”
Two people familiar with the shipment to Europe confirmed the expedited time frame reported on the diplomatic cable. Due to the sensitivity of the subject, they asked not to be named.
The previously unreleased cable, written to be distributed to the Pentagon and the State Department to give policymakers a summary of what was discussed between defense ministers at the NATO meeting, clearly shows that the Allies are nervous.
The document says that during the meetings, 15 NATO allies expressed concern that the alliance “should not succumb to Putin’s nuclear blackmail.”
“Given the growing volume and scale of Russia’s nuclear rhetoric, a group of allies has requested ongoing consultations at NATO to ensure continued readiness and consistent messaging,” Cable said.
Still, Collina also warned that any nuclear-related move – no matter how modest – could have unintended consequences.
“He can argue. We’ll see,” he said.
The B61 is a family of nuclear bombs first developed in the early 1960s and initially demonstrated at underground nuclear tests in Nevada. A dozen versions have been developed over the decades, and most have since been discontinued.
The $10 billion B61-12 Life Extension Program is administered by the Department of Energy and is intended to replace several earlier versions, including about 100 bombs stored at airbases in Germany, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands and Turkey.
The updates include the non-nuclear aspects of the unguided bomb design and the removal of a parachute and the installation of a new tail kit, and other improvements for “significantly greater accuracy,” Kristensen said.
The new version is also designed so that all US and allied bombers and warplanes can carry the weapon, including B-2 and B-21 bombers and F-15, F-16, F-35 and Tornado warplanes. , unlike a few older versions of the B61 that have been in storage for years.
The warhead itself is one of the most versatile in the US arsenal, as its explosive power can be dialed up or down depending on the target, making it a low- or medium-yield weapon.
Kristensen said the new arrival timeline is a sign that the Pentagon has determined that the weapon is ready sooner than planned.
He noted that the Department of Defense Inspector General is expected to complete a review of the weapon’s performance later this year or early next year prior to training for aircrews.
The Air Force conducted flight tests of the new bomb design on the F-35A in October 2021 and certified it on the F-15E in 2020. However, the Pentagon reported in February that it plans to “complete the nuclear design certification of the B61-12.” With the F-35A before January 2023, after that [U.S. Air Forces in Europe] will be able to start certificate training.”
“I thought these two things were going to happen before I saw the physical arrival,” Kristensen said.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin also told NATO allies in Brussels this month that the administration’s long-awaited Nuclear Posture Review – which may be released in the coming days – will continue Washington’s decades-long policy of “calculated uncertainty” nuclear declarations.
This is a change from President Joe Biden’s comments during his 2020 presidential campaign, where he said he would consider changing US policy to indicate that the sole purpose of atomic weapons is to deter a nuclear attack against America or its allies. forced disarmament groups.
Management has since retracted those comments. But Austin’s reassurance to his European allies that the United States’ nuclear notification policy would not change came as capitals across the continent sought a firm hand in Washington against nuclear-armed Russia and China.
James Acton, co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Biden’s “single-purpose” comments during the campaign had rippled across Europe, and that “a massive campaign has been waged by US allies to persuade him not to do this.” And this campaign has been successful.”
During the Brussels meetings, Austin also informed his allies that the review would support the full modernization of the US nuclear triad, retire the B83 gravity bomb, and end the nuclear sea-launched cruise missiles program initiated by the Trump administration.
But lawmakers oppose halting the cruise missile program and will likely continue to fund it in the upcoming defense policy legislation.
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