Europe worried about US commitment in Ukraine after midterms

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LONDON — US allies in Europe are increasingly convinced that the united front offered by the West in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine can quickly dissolve if Republicans prevail in next week’s midterm elections and Ukraine gives President Vladimir Putin an advantage in doing just that. they worry too much. progress on the battlefield.

In the eight months since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a rare level of transatlantic consensus has prevailed over the need to support Ukraine. Collectively, Ukraine’s allies have pledged over $93 billion in military, financial and humanitarian aid, with the lion’s share of the promised United States.

Since the comments by House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) that a Republican-controlled House would not continue to issue “blank check” funding for Ukraine, officials in both Kyiv and Western Europe have been wondering whether Ukraine can continue. They started to wonder. to trust the USA.

It is unclear whether the Republicans will carry out the threat of reducing funding to Ukraine if they gain control of the House. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), by contrast, said the Republican Senate majority would “focus its oversight on the timely delivery of needed weapons and providing more allied assistance to Ukraine.”

President Biden’s effort to help Ukraine has so far received broad bipartisan support, and opinion polls show strong support for continued US aid; 72 percent of respondents to the Chicago Global Affairs Council survey last week said they supported sending additional weapons and military aid. To Ukraine – including 68 percent of Republicans.

But the suggestion that only the US could withdraw started to ring alarm bells in Western capitals.

Without the massive amount of US weapons flowing into the country since February, Ukraine would not have forced Russia to withdraw, and any slowdown would “change the game” and turn the tide of the war. Tobias Ellwood, who chairs the UK parliament’s defense committee, said it was in Russia’s favour.

“You would be playing into Putin’s hands,” he said. “If America withdraws, Putin may snatch victory from the mouth of defeat.”

Ukrainian forces advance against Russian fighters in Kherson and Bakhmut

German political scientist Cathryn Culver-Ashbrook said a reduction in US aid could come as a wake-up call to many countries in Europe that are still stalling to meet some of the defense and financial commitments made after the invasion. He is vice president of the Washington-based Bertelsmann Foundation.

Germany, for example, said it has yet to take steps to increase its defense spending, in line with a historic commitment made by Chancellor Olaf Sholz shortly after the Russian invasion in February. The European Union has promised 11 billion euros in financial aid to Ukraine, but has only paid about 3 billion of it so far.

He said it would “accelerate a somewhat difficult conversation between the political classes” in Europe.

Nathalie Tocci, director of the Rome-based Istituto Affari Internazionale, said it was doubtful whether Europe would respond by increasing its commitments. At a time when the economic crisis deepens across the continent, some governments may take cues to ease their own aid to Ukraine.

It has held up surprisingly well so far, according to diplomats, although U.S. officials often worry that the European union may be frayed in the face of rising energy prices, which have hit European consumers particularly hard due to the continent’s reliance on Russian energy. Europeans are divided on many issues, from how to share the energy burden to the need for greater defense commitment. But one European official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive issues, said Europe’s resolve on the core issue to stand up to Russia has not changed.

“No one says no to anything. Despite some disagreement over details, no one is giving up or slowing down,” he said.

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But Tocci said the Biden administration has been instrumental in encouraging and mobilizing Europeans to present a united front and is exemplary in the scale of its commitments.

“You can really imagine that if that flounders in the United States, then the playing cards will start to drop,” he said.

He referred to the example of Italy, where a new government composed of far-right parties came to power. The new prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, quelled Europe’s fears that Italy could be the first European country to break ranks against Ukraine. “Italy will never be the West’s weak link in government with us,” he said as he took office.

But Meloni’s Brotherhood of Italy governs in coalition with two right-wing parties that are skeptical of Europe: the League and Forza Italia of former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, who is a fan of Putin, recently noted that the Ukrainian president was responsible for forcing war. . The Russian president will invade.

“A very important impetus for Europeans is that the United States is so prominent militarily and financially – it really encourages Europeans to support Ukraine. If this happens in the United States, then inevitably you can imagine that it had a huge impact in Europe, where the energy and economic crisis was felt more strongly,” Tocci said.

Analysts say it’s unclear whether European allies will be able to do so, even as they try to compensate for a reduction in US aid. As a percentage of GDP, the United States lags behind many European countries in the size of its contributions – Latvia leads the way, with aid worth 0.9 percent of its GDP, according to the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine support tracker. The United States gave aid worth 0.2 percent of GDP. But still this dwarfs the total amount given by any other nation by a large margin.

The size of America’s military commitments particularly dwarfs the capacity of any of its Western allies to fill the void – the United States has promised $27 billion, more than seven times the $3.74 billion committed by the second-largest military donor, the United Kingdom.

And Ukraine’s needs continue to grow. Russia’s escalating attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure have disabled power supplies in parts of the country, and President Volodymyr Zelensky said the country needs billions of dollars of urgent aid to survive next year. Ukrainian prime minister Denys Shmyhal, at a conference in Berlin on Tuesday dedicated to the rebuilding of Ukraine, urged the West to provide an emergency economic aid package of $17 billion, in addition to $3 billion a month in aid from the European Union and the United States.

Analysts say the demands are huge and could become increasingly burdensome as countries enter winter and possibly recession. British parliamentarian Ellwood said that American leadership is vital at this point.

“When America steps forward, other countries do the same. The scale of both financial and military support from the United States is off scale compared to other countries.” “But if America starts to blink, other nations may as well.