UN report warns global emissions will continue to rise under current climate commitments

In 2018, United Nations climate scientists warned that humanity would have to roughly reduce its emissions if the world wanted to prevent global average temperatures from rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), one of the goals of the Paris climate agreement. Half by 2030.

A report from the UN on Wednesday to increase emissions of 10.6 percent compared to 2010 levels, and that is if countries actually meet their current commitments. This could cause global average temperatures to rise as much as 2.9 degrees Celsius, or 5.22 degrees Fahrenheit.

This is a grim forecast and a reminder that there is a huge gap between what countries say and what they do, as world leaders prepare to summarize their plans to tackle climate change at COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt next month.

The effects, or lack thereof, of these actions are already evident and will only continue to worsen. UNICEF warned this week that 559 million children are already facing frequent heatwaves. By 2050, nearly every child in the world will experience more extreme temperatures, even under more optimistic greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.

“These disasters are not inevitable or ‘natural’ – it’s our nature,” climate activist Vanessa Nakate said in the report.

Lancet It also released its health and climate change assessment this week, noting that rising average temperatures are increasing the spread of certain diseases, impairing food security, exacerbating existing inequalities and threatening the health system as a whole.

“Therefore, urgent action is needed to strengthen the resilience of the health system and prevent the rapidly increasing loss of life and suffering in a changing climate,” the report said.

Climate conferences such as COP27 are the main tool for coordination between countries to address these issues. But the process has been painfully slow, and despite the push for more aggressive cuts in emissions, other economic concerns could stall progress once again.

Countries promise to do more than ever, but still not close enough

The 2015 Paris Agreement established a process by which countries would create their own plans to meet the goals of the agreement, limiting warming to 2 degrees Celsius below pre-industrial levels this century and a more ambitious target of staying below 1.5. Centigrade.

It was clear from the start that what countries promised would not be enough, but the idea was that as economies grew and technologies developed, countries would increase their commitments, which were outlined in plans known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). And so far, countries have stepped up their ambitions.

Current commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are an improvement, but not enough to meet climate change targets.

UN Climate Change

However, not everyone moves at the same pace. At the last major climate meeting in Glasgow a year ago, more than 130 countries, including the world’s three largest emitters of carbon dioxide, China, the United States and India, pledged to eventually zero their contribution to climate change. But since then, only 24 of the 193 parties to the Paris Agreement have increased their NDCs.

And NDCs are just commitments – countries have to act on them later, and so far they haven’t moved the needle. Global greenhouse gas emissions continued to rise. Emissions have been more than recovering this year, although the Covid-19 pandemic has led to a decline.

Global emissions have continued to rise in the years since the Paris Agreement.

Our World in Data

But as leaders gather in Sharm el-Sheikh, climate change may not be on their minds. Inflation is rising worldwide and many governments are preparing for recession. The Russian invasion of Ukraine caused an increase in fuel prices and grain prices. Some countries are now increasing their use of coal and other fossil fuels, reversing years of decline. Renewable energy is cheaper than ever, but much of the world economy is still powered by coal, oil and natural gas.

But for other countries, it’s impossible to ignore climate change. Floods in Pakistan this summer killed more than 1,100 people, exacerbated by melting glaciers. Extreme heat, drought and wildfires have affected more than 900 million people in China. A massive heat wave scorched much of India. As a result, some delegates attending the meeting not only demand greater urgency to address climate change, but also seek compensation, as the countries that contribute the least to global greenhouse gas emissions are often those that suffer the most from warming. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres openly called for such compensation last month.

“It is high time to warn fossil fuel producers, investors and facilitators,” he said in his speech at the UN General Assembly. “The polluters must pay.”

But that’s a hard sell, and rich countries like the US hate to admit any responsibility. Yet without reparations, some countries will be more reluctant to take aggressive steps to reduce their own emissions. This tension has derailed past climate conferences and may not be resolved. Therefore, even as global average temperatures rise and their impact becomes greater, momentum is slow to build up and meanwhile global greenhouse gas emissions will continue to rise.